Social development and demography
Central Asia is at a critical stage of demographic change.
Capturing the demographic dividend is not an automatic process but the result of sound investment and political will. It requires, above all, bold investment in education, health care, and expanding opportunities for young people and women. Only under these conditions can accelerated economic growth and the full realization of women’s potential in the labor market be achieved. Over the longer term, according to projections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), population growth will slow and the number of older people will rise — signaling a shift in countries’ demographic structure and a limited window for capturing the demographic dividend.
At the same time, the growing share of older people in the overall population calls for additional investment in the social sphere and flexible policies capable of meeting the needs of both young and older generations simultaneously.
Fully integrating and implementing the concept of demographic resilience would make it possible to effectively manage changes in age structure, migration flows, fertility, and life expectancy across the region — underpinning sustainable development, economic stability, and social well-being.
By making strategic decisions today, Central Asia can turn its demographic momentum into a foundation for long-term prosperity, innovation, and regional solidarity.
Charts
Scenarios
UN DESA demographic scenarios project sustained population growth for Central Asia through 2050. Even the region's "low" scenario exceeds the "high" scenario for the world, for Asia, and especially for Europe. Under the "medium" growth projection, Central Asia's working-age population (15–64) will grow from 50 million to 71 million, with its share of the total population rising from 62% today to 63% by 2050. By comparison, between 2023 and 2050 the working-age share is projected to fall from 67% to 64% in Asia and from 64% to 58% in Europe.
According to the forecast, if labor force participation reaches the 2024 global average by 2050, an additional 2.4 million people could enter the labor market. Given the creation of decent jobs, this would contribute to GDP growth and help reduce poverty as well as gender, regional, and age-related inequality.
Key priorities include investment in health care, education, and skills development, as well as active employment policies geared toward the digital and green economies. Under these conditions, the region's young people would be able to realize their full potential, driving accelerated economic growth and progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals.Without investment in an inclusive labor market, there is a risk of a "lost generation" denied opportunities for development.
In Central Asia, the demographic dividend cannot be fully realized without the complete integration of women into the economy. The 22-percentage-point gap between the labor force participation rates of women and men (2024) points to substantial macroeconomic losses. Key barriers include high fertility rates, limited access to family planning services, a shortage of childcare services, inflexible labor market conditions, caregiving responsibilities for elderly relatives, and factors that hinder women's education and careers. Together, these erode women's qualifications and push them toward informal employment. A number of countries in the region have carried out reforms, including lifting bans on women's employment in heavy industry and introducing subsidies for women-led enterprises. Yet the principal barrier — unpaid domestic labor — persists, and legal measures alone cannot resolve it.
Targeted investment in women's human capital — through the development of social infrastructure and gender-responsive employment — is the key to fully realizing the "gender dividend."Women live longer than men, but employment in the informal sector and interruptions in their working lives leave them with smaller pension savings, contributing to the "feminization of poverty." Possible solutions include gender-responsive pension reform, expanded social protection, the formalization of women's employment, and recognition of unpaid labor.
Using demographic projections to plan health and social protection systems is essential, as it allows for the timely reorientation of services toward gerontological care and supports opportunities for older people to remain employed and actively engaged in public life.Migration plays an important role in Central Asia's development. Historically, the region has experienced large-scale migration flows — from rural-to-urban migration and Soviet-era resettlement to today's external and circular labor migration. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, labor migration remains vital: both countries rank among the world leaders in remittances as a share of GDP, a large portion of which comes from current and former migrants. A similar but somewhat less pronounced trend is observed in Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan, by contrast, is becoming a destination hub for migrants from neighboring countries. However, high levels of informal and irregular employment make migrants one of the most vulnerable social groups, and their children often become "social orphans," facing risks of inadequate care and marginalization.
Recommendations
- 1 Increasing investment in women's human capital. Scaling up state and regional financing for health care, education, and skills development, with priority given to ensuring equal opportunities for women and disadvantaged young people, particularly in rural areas. It is also important to include support measures for girls, children with disabilities, and young women who are neither in education nor employment. Incorporating gender considerations into budgeting and reform processes will improve investment effectiveness and reduce inequality. Integrating family-friendly and reproductive policies into labor market development strategies. This includes ensuring broad, convenient access to reproductive health services and introducing paid parental leave, flexible working hours, and affordable preschool education as family support measures. These initiatives simultaneously strengthen women's employment, fertility stability, labor productivity, and population well-being.
- 2 Economic integration and expanded opportunities for young people. Developing youth employment strategies that reflect demographic trends. Programs for developing digital, green, and social skills are important, along with measures to expand youth access to the labor market, microfinance, mentorship, and startups — including cross-border innovation clusters. Establishing regional scholarship and academic mobility programs. Interstate funds and exchange programs give young people, including those from rural and underserved communities, the opportunity to study at the region's leading universities, while strengthening regional identity and building a network of future leaders. Strengthening cross-border cooperation on youth policy and security. Programs for preventing extremism and fostering civic participation, media literacy, and critical thinking need to be developed, particularly in border areas with mixed ethnic composition. This strengthens young people's resilience and their role in building a safe and inclusive region.
- 3 Expanding labor market participation and creating decent jobs. Introducing regional mechanisms for skills recognition and unified educational standards. This will simplify cross-border employment and reduce the scale of informal migration. Creating jobs in the green economy and the care sector. Investment in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, waste recycling, and elderly and child care reduces unemployment and supports the Sustainable Development Goals. Removing barriers to women's economic participation. Reforms are needed that simplify business registration, expand women's employment, and encourage employers to provide access to childcare and eldercare services.
- 4 Preparing for an aging population. Modernizing pension and long-term care systems. This is essential to ensure financial sustainability, fairness, and unimpeded access to services for everyone — particularly women and informal-sector workers. Promoting active aging. Retraining, mentorship, digital education, and the exchange of volunteering experience give older people the opportunity to contribute to economic and social development. Expanding regional dialogue on aging. Joint demographic forecasting, statistical exchange, and expert consultations help adapt social and economic systems to changing conditions.
- 5 Safe and effective migration. Coordinating migration policy and the protection of migrants' rights. Mutual recognition of qualifications, standardized labor contracts, and legal protection mechanisms are particularly important for women and young people. Advancing the principle of extraterritoriality for social benefits and services. Bilateral and regional agreements should guarantee migrants and their families the preservation of accrued pension entitlements, as well as access to health care and education. Facilitating mobility through digital ID and modern infrastructure. Such tools increase transparency and simplify movement for young people, students, and professionals.
- 6 Demography and climate resilience. Integrating demographic factors into climate strategies. This applies above all to urban planning, water supply, and food security. Strengthening regional cooperation on natural resource management. Cooperation within the Aral Sea basin — on water, land, and ecosystems — is especially important. Developing early warning systems that account for gender and age-specific needs. Women and young people should be at the center of demographic adaptation efforts.
- 7 Applying demographic analysis in planning. Strengthening regular population censuses and forecasting. This allows important changes to be captured in a timely manner and strategies to be adjusted accordingly. Harmonizing statistical indicators. Aligned methodologies facilitate cross-border analysis and joint planning. Establishing regional demographic centers. These would coordinate data analysis, research, and the preparation of evidence-based recommendations for sustainable development.